The State of Australian Cities (SoAC) 2024 Report was released this week, following a freedom of information request, and is available here.
As part of the 2022 election, the Federal Government committed to deliver a State of Australian Cities Report (SoAC) as an accurate and up-to-date picture of life in our big cities.
The SoAC was finalised in November 2024, but not released.
Federal Treasury recommended that the SoAC report not be published due to limited relevance to the Government’s policy agenda.
The Report introduction states that it should be read in conjunction with the National Urban Policy which was finalised in November 2024.
The Report provides a comprehensive overview of the patterns, trends and drivers which are shaping Australia’s 20 largest population centres. Although the data is now out-of-date, the overall findings and many of the observations remain relevant.
Data and definitions
Much of the analysis contained in the Report compares census data from 2011, 2016 and 2021. It is therefore not equipped to evaluate the current Government’s policies – but it does still reveal patterns and forces with inertia across electoral cycles.
The five largest capitals (Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide) are examined totally and also divided into inner, middle and outer ring classifications used by the Bureau of Communications, Arts and Regional Research (BCARR). Maps are included of the areas defined.
Australia is growing and urbanising, but there’s more
Between 2013 and 2023, Australia’s population grew at an average annual rate of 1.4%. Approximately 80% of the Australian population lives within the 20 largest cities, including 40% in Sydney and Melbourne alone, and 87% of the population lives within 50km of the coast.
The proportion of Australians living in cities in increasing but there are significant spatial differences caused by internal and overseas migration flows.
The largest capital cities have the majority and an increasing share of the Australian population. Melbourne grew the most of any Australian city between 2013 and 2023 in absolute terms, followed by Sydney and Brisbane. The greatest population growth in capital cities has occurred in outer ring areas.
Overseas migration is the largest cause of population increase in capital cities. Only the 15-24 age group is showing positive in-migration to capital cities, “likely because of the education and early career opportunities” (p16). There is consistent outflow of internal migrants from capital cities to regional areas.
Australia’s ageing population is growing everywhere but unevenly. Population growth in the 65 and over age cohort is expected to range from 2.3% in Sydney and Adelaide to 3.3% in Darwin to 2034.
Economic activity and prosperity is concentrated
Economic output (GDP) is correlated with population, with Australia’s major cities contributing 77.8% of GDP in 2020-21.
Cities are also home to fast growing industries and account for the majority of job creation. The industries which showed the fastest average annual growth rate in Gross Value Added (GVA) over the 5 years to 2022-23 were in the media, health and professional services sectors, which are all concentrated within cities. Of the major capitals, Sydney and Melbourne have a higher share of ‘Professional, Scientific and Technical Services’ jobs than other capitals.
Real median weekly household incomes were higher in capital cities in 2011, 2016 and 2021. Sydney, Melbourne, Perth and Brisbane were all above the Australian average, whereas all non-capital cities were below.
Affordability is worsening and worse for renters
Median dwelling price to income ratios increased in most major cities, as did the rent to income ratio. Across Australia, 35.4% of renters spent more than 30% of their income on housing compared to 16.3% of homeowners with a mortgage in 2021.
Social housing, defined as housing rented from a public housing authority or CHP, decreased as a proportion of total housing stock nationally from 4.5% to 3.8% between 2011 and 2021.
Density is the outlier
The mix of new dwellings varies across Australian cities. Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra are outliers in terms of the share of medium-high density housing which was built from 2011 to 2021. Sydney and Canberra were the only cities during that time where medium and high density typologies accounted for a majority of housing growth. Separate houses in outer ring areas continue to be the most common modality for housing growth in most Australian cities.
Urban expansion is inequitable
Average access to health infrastructure declined slightly across Australian capitals from 2018 to 2021. The Reports notes that this is “possibly due to an increase in the number of dwellings that are further away from existing infrastructure rather than a decrease in infrastructure.”
The Report demonstrates clearly than access and equity across a wide variety of indicators is worse in the outer rings of Australian capital cities, where population density is lower and transport options are fewer. Sydney is the only city in Australia with over 50% of dwellings in the outer ring within 400m of a regular transport service.